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Before getting into it I want to quickly remind everyone that my prediction is not what I want to happen, it’s simply what I think will happen. If you are looking for someone to just confirm your bias and tell you that Republicans are going to outperform every poll or that Democrats are going to have a historic blue tsunami, you’re in the wrong place.

My Personal Positions:

First off, there are few Senate elections that I personally placed a bet on. These are specific races where I see value. I will list them below with a short thesis for each. I also shared them in my Polymarket midterm group here, where you can see the actual positions.

Iowa Senate - Ashley Hinson (R)

This was my first position of the midterms and I bought it with her odds at ~55%. This is a state that Trump won by +13 in 2024. While all of the toss-up states for Senate are close, Iowa is the only one where the Republican has been consistently leading/tied in the polls. Lots of people like to talk about polling errors and the understating of Republican support. Well, there is no better example than Iowa. Iowa has seen constant polling errors towards Democrats including in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. There seems to be a real rural polling issue. Aside from the quantitative, Hinson also has a major qualitative advantage. She is smart, attractive and speaks well, so Iowa doesn’t have the "bad candidate" problem that many other red states are dealing with. As of writing this, the early voting data also looks solid for her. (screenshot below from my election excel sheet on my macbook air that has outperformed Nate Silver)

Maine Senate - Susan Collins (R)

My second position is Susan Collins to continue her reign in Maine. She is the Democratic party’s white whale. Now, if there was ever a year to finally beat her, this is definitely it. It’s the best national environment for Democrats in 20+ years and Susan is older than ever. However… you can’t post Susan Collins as an underdog and expect me not to put money on her. Maine is a unique state that values their political independence. Susan Collins is one of the most senior Senators and holds real leverage in the Republican party against Trump, often forcing him to change positions and amend bills. Troy Jackson would be nothing more than a junior Democratic Senator with zero power or pull to do anything. Jackson is also aligned with the DSA and not at all positioned as a moderate, which Maine normally prefers. In fact, aside from El-Sayed in Michigan, Jackson might be the weakest Democratic candidate of this election cycle. Plus, Susan Collins historically outruns her polls. In 2020 polling averages had Collins losing to Gideon (a much better Dem candidate) by -4, and she still ended up winning by +9. Today, she’s down just ~1pt in the polls. Maine hasn’t elected a Democratic Senator since 1988, and I am on Susan Collins to keep that streak rolling.

Kansas Senate - Roger Marshall (R)

My third position is Marshall to hold his seat in Kansas. Democrats are in a very strong position and it has brought a few races into the national conversation that weren’t just a month or two ago. I’m taking advantage of that. His odds to win got down near even and I decided to pull the trigger. Trump won Kansas by +16 in 2024 and Marshall won his seat by +11 in 2020. Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic Senator since before WW2. This is deep red territory, which polls now have as a toss-up. In the few recent Kansas elections where polls did show competitive races (2014 + 2020), Republicans then outperformed by 5-10pts. Marshall will also benefit from having Ty Masterson (R) on the ballot, who is a very popular candidate and still the clear favorite to win the Governor’s race.

You'll notice that all 3 of my positions are Republicans. This is simply because I think many of the Democratic candidates are currently priced for perfection in a very strong national environment. In my opinion, the best value is on the few higher-quality Republicans whose odds got dragged down in a wider net.

House + Senate Prediction:

Ok, my official predictions for both houses of Congress. I’m not going to spend much time on the House because I’ve been saying the same thing for 12 months…

The Democrats are winning the House.

History says the Republicans would lose seats even if the current administration was popular… and they are not. Trump’s approval is at record lows, he started the most unpopular war in American history, and inflation is still elevated. Many Americans, especially young men, who flocked to him in 2024 feel completely betrayed and aren’t showing up to vote so far. It’s not going to be a good night for Republicans. I think Democrats could gain ~20 seats and they will have a clear majority around 235 come January. It won’t be Obama’s 60+ seat "shellacking" in 2010, but still a very strong midterm beating.

The Senate:

While I think it’s going to be a bad night for Republicans, they do still have hope in the Senate. This isn’t because they deserve to win the Senate, but purely due to structural reasons. The map itself is difficult for Democrats to flip. Here is the map with all 7 "toss-up" states in dark gray. (Some people are including South Carolina, Nebraska and Minnesota. I am not.)

Out of these 7 states, I believe the best 2 for Republicans (and toughest 2 for Democrats), are Iowa and Kansas. Trump won both by double digits two years ago and they haven’t elected a Democratic Senator in a very long time. As I said before, Ashley Hinson is a strong candidate who is leading in the polls and Iowa is ground zero for Republican polling misses. Kansas is deep red territory trading at a discount due to Democrats pushing to "expand the map" and Ty Masterson can help pull Marshall across the finish line. After those two states, Republicans then have Susan Collins in Maine. You’ll notice that these are my 3 personal positions from above… Iowa. Kansas. Maine. I believe Republicans will hold these seats.

With that being said… if they don’t win these 3, the Republicans are toast and there’s really no need for further analysis. Democrats are winning the Senate with a massive blue wave.

However, if my prediction is right and Republicans do hold Iowa, Kansas and Maine, then they are already at 49 Senate seats. You can see on the map above. They would then need just 1 more state to hit 50 and maintain control of the Senate with Vice President JD Vance as the tie breaker. This is why I said they still have hope. Even with the war in Iran, high gas prices and an incredibly strong D electorate… the map is structurally built in their favor. There are then 4 toss-up states remaining: Michigan, Ohio, Alaska and Texas

Trump won all 4 of these states in 2024, and 3/4 by double digits:
🔴Michigan: R +1.4
🔴Ohio: R +11.2
🔴Alaska: R +13.1
🔴Texas: R +13.6

It’s worth noting that since 2010, no state won by double digits in a presidential election has been flipped by the opposition party for Senate 2 years later. It hasn’t been done once in the Trump era. Now, this midterm environment is very different and the strongest for Democrats in 20+ years, so are they going to flip a double-digit Trump state? Yes. But again… Republicans don’t need to win all 4 of these remaining states, or even 3, or even 2. They only need to win 1 more and they would hit 50 in the Senate.

To Recap the Path:

1. Republicans hold Iowa and Kansas
2. Susan Collins collects another skull
3. Democrats then need to sweep all 4 of Michigan, Ohio, Alaska and Texas.

My prediction is that Democrats do not sweep and the Senate lands at 50/50, allowing Republicans to maintain control with JD Vance as the tie breaker.

I also added this as a bonus position on Polymarket.
D House, R Senate at 4:1 odds

So… which of the 4 remaining states will Democrats lose? Many Republicans will immediately say Texas, because Texas will never go blue! I wouldn’t be so sure. Paxton is a very bad candidate and the early vote is not looking good for him so far. Alaska could be very close, especially after the NYT reported that Mary Peltola secretly recruited the fake Dan Sullivan to siphon votes. Gun to my head, I think the Republicans’ best shot is actually in the Midwest. El-Sayed in Michigan is a weak candidate and has tons of issues inside his own party. He ended up underperforming the Democratic primary polls by double digits. Meanwhile, Husted in Ohio is one of the stronger Republican candidates and Ohio has seen some insane polling misses in recent years, almost as bad as Iowa. Both races are currently within 2-3pts.

The bottom line is that Democrats are slightly favored in all 4 of these races, and I don’t disagree with those odds. I’m simply predicting that they won’t go 4-0. Republicans are playing defense with this map and ultimately the burden lies with Democrats. Flipping 3 double-digit Trump states, even in a great national environment, is a tough task. Midterms are much more volatile than presidential elections and the shifts state to state are not as uniform. We could end up seeing some very disconnected results based on the specific candidates and voter turnout.

Official Prediction:

The Senate splits 50-50
I’ll go with Ohio to be R state #50 simply for the purpose of completing my map, but ultimately it could be any one of the four: MI/OH/TX/AK

The Neighbor Poll:

One of the most effective polling questions in modern politics is the neighbor poll. After asking likely voters who they will support, you then ask who they think their neighbors will vote for. "Theo" the French whale on Polymarket famously used this polling method to win $50+ Million in the 2024 election.

While I couldn’t find any reputable polling firm that asked the neighbor question for these midterms, Marist did ask something very similar in the past two weeks. After asking likely voters who they were voting for, they then asked: "Regardless of who you support, who do you think will actually win the election for Senate?"

2 states stood out to me with massive spreads…
Iowa and Maine. (The Maine poll was dropped late last night)

Who you’re voting for:
Who you think will actually win:

Iowa:
🔵 Turek +3
🔴 Hinson +23 (+26)

Maine:
🔵 Jackson +2
🔴 Collins +18 (+20)

It’s just another data point, but it’s very good news for two of my main positions. Much better than having a 20+ point spread in the opposite direction.

Bellwethers To Watch:

There are also some key districts/counties to watch early on that should tell us how the rest of the night is going to go…

At 6pm ET:

KY-06 (Trump +15)
IN-05 (Trump +17)

These counties in Kentucky and Indiana were big Trump wins, but they should give us an early look at the size of the national D shift. Republicans are not going to hit Trump’s 2024 numbers, but they still want to see solid wins here. If these are now close, it’s incredibly good news for Democrats.

At 7pm ET:

Republicans must win 4/6 of the below House districts in Florida. If they win 5 by stealing either FL-14 or FL-25, it’s a good night. If they only win 3, it’s a blue wave:

FL-09
FL-13
*FL-14
FL-22
*FL-25
FL-27

At 8pm ET:

Collin County, Texas (Trump +11, Cruz +5)
I wrote about this one on X last week. If Talarico wants to finally flip Texas blue, he will almost certainly need to win Collin County, or a rough tie at worst. Paxton definitely needs to win it to have a shot.

Macomb County, Michigan (Trump +14)
Mike Rogers needs to run it up here. Double digits. If Macomb is competitive it’s going to be a good night for El-Sayed.

Sedgwick County, Kansas (Trump +14)
Roger Marshall needs needs to win Sedgwick by just 4-5 pts and he should win.

2026 Midterm Summary:

My 3 Bets:

Iowa Senate - Ashley Hinson (R)
Maine Senate - Susan Collins (R)
Kansas Senate - Roger Marshall (R)

My Official Predictions:

House:
🔵Democrats - 235
🔴Republicans - 200

Senate:
🔵Democrats - 50
🔴Republicans - 50

There it is. I want to again clarify that my personal opinions on these races and my House/Senate predictions are just that… my personal opinions and predictions. I could be right, I could be wrong. Midterm elections are much more volatile than presidential elections. Whether you agree or disagree, the beauty is that we will all find out on Tuesday night. Best of luck.

P.S. - Once the midterms are final, I will have a recap post out for subscribers that also covers how markets are likely to react and move towards year-end. Subscribe above.

I will also have a full midterm prediction article up on substack later this month.

Enjoy the weekend. 🤝

Stocks:

As I wrote last month, September during midterm years is historically the weakest month of the year. While it ended up closing just slightly red, it was an extremely volatile month. However, that trend changes dramatically once the calendar flips to October. These next two months (October and November) are historically the strongest months of the entire midterm year, and it’s not even close.

When looking at the full 4-year presidential cycle, we are now entering the most bullish period. Q4 of year 2 (midterm year) and Q1 + Q2 of year 3 are by far the strongest quarters of stock performance throughout all 4 years.

In fact, the S&P500 has seen an average Q4 gain of about 6.6% in midterm years since 1950. That’s almost double the average 3.4% gain in all non-midterm years.

If we pull up a 1-year chart of the S&P500, we just had a nice breakout to new all-time highs after 2-3 months of chopping sideways. Looks like a bullish Q4 setup.

On top of this incredible seasonality, we have two major factors that could contribute to a very bullish Q4. First, the market was previously pricing in and preparing for another rate hike at the October FOMC meeting, with another set to follow in December. It’s now clear that we may be getting a hold instead. Multiple Fed speakers have walked back their hawkish tone and suggested that the Fed has more time to be patient with a "wait-and-see" approach. Polymarket now has the odds of another rate hike this month at just ~16%.

Plus, as I’ve said for almost a year now, the Democrats are an absolute lock to win the House on November 3rd. Regardless of how the Senate turns out (I will have a full midterm prediction post later this month), there is nothing markets love more than divided government. With Democrats in control of the House, it means even more gridlock in Washington, DC. In another word… stability. Trump and the Republicans won’t be able to pass whatever they want on their own. Markets love this stability and gridlock. It means less policy shock and business as usual.

Bitcoin:

For those who may not know, crypto guys often refer to the month of October as "Uptober". This is because of Bitcoin’s incredible seasonality and performance around the end of the year. Q4, and specifically October, is historically a very strong period for Bitcoin. Looking at the last decade, October is by far Bitcoin’s best and most consistent month. It has been positive in 9 of the last 11 Octobers, with an average gain of +19.2%.

However, if you look at Bitcoin’s Q4 performance during it’s previous three midterm years… it’s not great.

2014: -18%
2018: -44%
2022: -15%

Positive 0/3 midterm Q4s. Average loss of -26%. This obviously throws some cold water on the typical Uptober/Q4 thesis, but it would be completely normal and follow the Bitcoin cycle history perfectly.

Q4 2013 peak → Q4 2014 bottom
Q4 2017 peak → Q4 2018 bottom
Q4 2021 peak → Q4 2022 bottom
Q4 2025 peak → Q4 2026 bottom???

A weak Q4 with a ~30% pullback would repeat the four-year pattern, bottoming ~18 months after the April 2024 halving and ~12 months after the cycle peak in Q4 2025. Of course, it’s very possible that Bitcoin already put in the cycle bottom this summer a few months earlier than usual. I just want to remind you of the cycle history… which does indeed point to a Q4 bottom.

Now, whether it bottomed in July or will pull back again in Q4, when looking at Bitcoin in Gold terms it’s hard not to be bullish long-term. As we move into 2027 and the new bitcoin cycle progresses, I expect BTC/XAU to climb sharply. (Unless some AI cryptography advancement kills the entire crypto industry first)

As we know, the Trump administration has now fully committed to running the economy hot and I believe we have entered an era of Fiscal Dominance. Hard assets will continue to thrive in the coming years as the dollar and global fiat currencies are printed and debased. Inflation is still running above the Fed’s target with no sign of returning to 2% in any meaningful fashion. As more and more people become aware of the persistent inflation and currency debasement, the significance of holding hard assets like real estate, stocks, gold and bitcoin will only grow.

2018 Midterm Scenario:

Before you start piling into TQQQ and 5x leveraged Bitcoin perps, there is another possibility that most people are not pricing in at all and I find myself leaning towards…

A repeat of Q4 2018.

Let’s do a quick recap of what happened then:

October: The S&P 500 declined ~7% as rising treasury yields and hawkish Fed expectations contributed to a sharp drop in equities and market sentiment.

November: The midterms produced an immediate relief rally. Democrats gained 41 House seats and would act as a major check on the Trump administration.

December: The relief rally didn’t last long. The Fed hiked again in December and projected more hikes into 2019. Global trade tensions were high. Political noise picked up post-midterms with threats of a government shutdown and partisan investigations. The S&P 500 fell ~9% in December and reached its 2018 low on Christmas Eve, briefly entering a bear market.

Anything sound familiar?

Overall, the S&P 500 fell ~14% during Q4 2018 despite the historically bullish midterm seasonality. I’m not saying this scenario will definitely play out, but the similarities to 2018 are too big to ignore, and we should be prepared. Political seasonality becomes much less reliable when yields and macro conditions are pushing in the opposite direction.

Summary:

The Pros/Cons of the Q4 ahead of us…

Pros:

• Strong market seasonality in October and November

• Less Fed rate hikes than initially projected

• The Bitcoin cycle putting in a confirmed bottom

• Democrats take the House and divided government

Cons:

• Surging bond yields

• Sticky inflation and possibility of more hikes in 2027

• Very narrow equity-market leadership

• Oil + energy prices still high

• Political turmoil post-midterms

• Possible re-escalation of the Iran War

Midterm seasonality remains a meaningful tailwind as we enter Q4, but it’s not ironclad. 2018 proved that even the most bullish seasonality and a positive election outcome can be overpowered by rising bond yields, shifting Fed policy and economic tension. While I am holding all of my long-term core positions, I think it’s a good idea to consider raising some cash here until we see some of these major threats subside. Be careful out there and let’s have a great Q4. 🤝

P.S. - I will have my full midterm prediction article up towards the end of this month. Subscribe below:

As always, this is not financial advice. I am sharing my personal views. It is meant to stimulate ideas and is not investment advice. Make your own decisions.

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I wanted to put together some quick notes and charts on what we can expect from markets and key assets through year-end. Plus, my current thinking on September and Q4. Let’s dive in…

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"AI + Robots will reorder the entire economy."
- Elon Musk

As far as most people are concerned, AI is something on their screens. It’s an incredible tool stuck inside of your laptop or phone. However, it’s very clear that the next technology frontier will be combining AI with the advancements in robotics, bringing AI off of our computers and into the physical world. Over the last several days I’ve been building a position in a new stock. This is my largest starting position since Definium Therapeutics early last year, which then went up ~470% in 14 months. This company is positioned perfectly for the rapidly accelerating Physical AI/Robotics theme. I like the stock fundamentally, technically and politically and wanted to share it with the great readers of Geiger Capital. Lets dive in…

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In this review I will:

• Recap my 1H 2026 portfolio performance

• Each individual position’s YTD performance

• List the stocks I am keeping as we begin Q3

• Discuss where I’m looking for my next big trade

Let’s dive in…

YTD Performance (as of 6/30):

🔵 Geiger Capital Portfolio: +52%
🟠 S&P 500: +9%

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This post will go over the outcome I’m expecting, a review of my current Colombian stock positions, as well as my outlook for each of them post-election. Let’s dive in…

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This post will go over the current state of the race, the outcome I’m expecting, and how I’m positioned for it. This includes a stock that has recently become the largest position in my portfolio. Let’s dive in…

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In my 2026 Market Outlook, I listed the 5 stock positions I had entering the year. Since then, I’ve added 2 more core positions.

Current positions YTD:
🟢 +90% (+215% since posted)
🟢 +64% (+166% since posted)
🟢 +46% (+125% since posted)
🟢 +33% (+35% since posted)
🟢 +31% (+60% since posted)
🟢 +20% (*since posted 3/30)
🔴 -17% (*since posted 2/10)

If you had put an equal amount into each of the 5 positions on January 1st, and the additional 2 when posted, you’d be up +38% YTD. The S&P 500 is up 3% YTD.

Below I will list all 7 stocks, along with a brief updated thesis for each. I will also link to the full write-up I posted for every one of them individually. Let’s dive in…

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Here is the 1-Year performance of the region’s largest economies vs. the S&P 500:

🔴US (SPY): +14%
🟢Brazil (EWZ): +41%
🟢Colombia (COLO): +41%
🟢Mexico (EWW): +39%
🟢Chile (ECH): +30%

In addition to the region’s widespread outperformance, in November I wrote about a “Sleeping Giant in Latin America”, a specific stock that was perfectly set up to capture two major trends. It was positioned beautifully to take advantage of both rising oil prices into 2026 (a very contrarian view at the time) as well as a right-wing victory in Colombia’s upcoming election. That company was EcoPetrol ($EC), Colombia’s national energy giant.

Well… since my post 4 months ago, $EC is now up +56%.

I have now found a new stock that is sitting in a similar situation and should take full advantage of the Golden Age sweeping across Latin America. It’s not another sleeping giant, but more of a Hidden Gem. This is a company with strong fundamentals, incredible market positioning, and also has a major catalyst coming up that could easily send it’s stock to new decade highs. Let’s dive in…

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In my 2026 Market Outlook posted back in December, I mentioned a small-cap mining company that subscribers should keep an eye on. It’s name is Doubleview Gold Corp ($DBLVF). Entering the year they were waiting for an updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) and Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for their flagship "Hat Project" deposit in British Columbia.

Early research showed that this large-scale deposit was a major source of Copper, Cobalt, Gold, Silver, and even Scandium. Copper and Cobalt are in high demand lately due to AI data centers, wiring, EVs and batteries. Gold and Silver are in high demand due to both geopolitical and monetary uncertainty. Scandium is a rare earth metal used in planes and military tech that was recently included on China’s export list. Most importantly, the company owns 100% of the Hat Project and it’s located in a mining-friendly part of Canada known as the "Golden Triangle".

From my post in December:

Well… that was correct and the stock is now up +140% YTD.

In late February Doubleview released their updated MRE and as predicted it was a very positive update. The measurements at their flagship deposit had grown substantially in size and confidence level, while also maintaining reasonable grades. For a junior miner/developer this was a key moment that helped de-risk the Hat Project meaningfully and immediately positioned it as a leading multi-commodity asset in a great location.

Then, just a week after the MRE, Doubleview announced the new Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for the Hat Project on March 2nd. Even though the stock has pulled back a bit since, it was fantastic.

The assessment found that at "consensus analyst" metal prices, the after-tax Net Present Value (NPV) of the deposit is C$5-7 Billion. This is using extremely conservative price estimates. At current spot metal prices (as of late February in the assessment) the NPV would be C$11-14.5 Billion, more than double. Even the most conservative estimate is absolutely massive for a junior miner that is currently trading at a ~$400M market cap.

Looking at the mineral production estimates, the assessment said the Hat Project could be expected to produce an average of:

• Copper ~75,000+ tons/yr

• Gold ~250,000+ ounces/yr

• Silver ~376,000+ ounces/yr

• Cobalt ~2,700+ tons/yr

These are the annual production estimates of the project over the first 10 years.

It’s worth noting that the projected Cobalt production of ~2,700 tons per year would be equivalent to ~65% of North America’s entire Cobalt production in 2024. This mine would immediately become a primary North American source for both Cobalt and Copper.

This study is incredibly bullish, and again, very conservative. It uses safe assumptions, much lower prices than spot and also includes buffers for unexpected costs. It’s baseline almost entirely leaves out the bonus upside of Scandium, which could be 120+ tons per year. That is pure upside that could result in billions of extra value. Global demand for Scandium is estimated to 5-10X over the next decade due to growing commercial and military applications. The problem has been securing reliable supply due to most of it coming from China and Russia. The Hat Project could now be a major North American source, and it is barely being reflected in this NPV.

Here is what the CEO of Doubleview Gold said following these PEA results:

After this PEA the company is immediately moving into a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS), providing a clear roadmap for early works and permitting activities later this year and into 2027. Doubleview is trading well below it’s peers and the Hat Project appears extremely undervalued even at the "consensus" estimates.

The market has not realized what this PEA has shown or what the Hat Project may become for North America, as both Canada and the US race to secure domestic mineral supply chains. In addition, I believe there is now a very high chance that a larger miner comes in and makes a buyout offer. The PEA de-risked the project while also leaving a lot of potential upside. This could be one of the largest, most valuable developing mines in the world that is not already owned by a major mining company or a nation state.

In early January, I told our subscriber chat that I had initiated a small position in $DBLVF and today I am still holding the entire position up ~140%. I believe this company is very undervalued following the Hat Project PEA and it should see significant upside even without a buyout. However, I think an acquisition is now extremely likely in the coming months/quarters and the stock has the potential to go up multiples from here.

*This is a small-cap company. Do your own research.

As always, this is not financial advice. I am sharing my personal views. It is meant to stimulate ideas and is not investment advice. Make your own decisions.

Core Positions YTD:
(as of 2/9/26)

1. 🟢 +63%

2. 🟢 +30%

3. 🟢 +22%

4. 🟢 +20%

5. 🟢 +25%

In the past few days I’ve entered into a new position that is #6. It’s an AI-related stock that I believe is flying under the radar and should see massive upside. I wanted to share it with the great readers of Geiger Capital. Let’s dive in…

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• First, this is not a major surprise to markets (or us). We’ve been talking about this happening for months. Not only was Maduro deeply unpopular in Venezuela but he had lost all support in the region, even from other socialist leaders. I’m not expecting a major market shock in any form.

• This is bearish oil, however not as bearish as many are yelling. Venezuela’s oil production is down ~75% from it’s peak and today it only produces ~1% of global supply. As Venezuela shifts post-Maduro, especially with US involvement, oil production and supply is surely going to increase. It’s specifically bearish for Canada’s oil industry, as Venezuela produces a similar crude as Alberta. As Venezuelan supply increases, Canada will lose a lot of economic activity and trade leverage. The only bullish news, it should take a few years for this to play out. There is no immediate spigot to turn on in Caracas. Oil infrastructure needs to be rebuilt and their oil production will actually be flat/down in 2026.
  
  (Venezuela’s oil production, thousands of barrels)

  

• What comes next for Venezuela? The main problem with regime change isn’t removing the dictator, it’s who/what takes his place. I don’t believe the Trump Administration and Marco Rubio would grab Maduro with no plan on who would assume power. Things are obviously moving quickly and the facts on the ground can change, but here is my leading theory:
  
  Trump announced that we would “run Venezuela” for a period of time until they hold new elections. The media freaked out and assumed that meant we would be sending in troops to take over the capital. In reality, that was Trump speak for “we will be approving the leadership and policy in Venezuela”. I believe their pre-selected leader has already been put into place. Maduro’s Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, was sworn in as the new President yesterday.
  
  It’s important to note that she was previously in charge of Venezuela’s oil industry. While she was part of Maduro’s government, American officials have long seen her as more willing to work with the US. After being sworn in she gave a speech where she attacked the Trump administration, which I believe was mostly PR. She needs to talk tough publicly to retain support of the party and the military. What she says publicly isn’t that important, her actions will tell the truth.
  
  If she doesn’t play ball and instead defies the Trump administration, expect her to meet the same fate as Maduro. She now knows how easily she could be “replaced” and is also well aware that we clearly have CIA agents inside of Venezuela. Millions of Venezuelan’s have fled the country in the last few years, and obviously the vast majority of the opposition is no longer present. Because of this, the Trump administration believes current opposition leader Maria Corina Machado won’t have the immediate support to take over. They prefer Delcy Rodriguez because of her loyalty from the party and the military. I believe this is the correct move to provide stability in Venezuela for the time being. If she ends up refusing to work with the US, Maria Corina Machado could be the Plan B.

  

• Venezuela is not Iraq. I’m seeing tons of people talking about previous Middle East regime changes and applying the results to today. While the situation in Venezuela could certainly be unstable, this is simply not the same. Venezuela is in the Western hemisphere and had true democracy for decades before recently. The demographics are also nothing like Iraq or Libya. This is a largely European and Indigenous nation. It’s also ~90% Christian. The lines are drawn by political views, not blood feuds and religious extremists.
  

• This move by America has kicked our “Golden Age of Latin America” into hyperdrive. The right-wing political, economic and social shifts were already taking place naturally, and now in addition we have the US openly reviving the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine (a strong prediction of mine after Trump was elected). Socialism in LatAm is fading fast and let me be clear… I don’t think the Trump administration is done. In my view, Cuba is a clear target for them to go after next. It also wouldn’t be shocking to see some leaders cut deals to live the rest of their days outside of the Western hemisphere to avoid the same fate as Maduro. Plus, Colombia has their election this May and as I’ve been saying, the odds of a right-wing, pro-capitalism, pro-US candidate being elected are still very underpriced. (Ties into our latest large investment linked here).

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(My full 2026 Market Outlook will be posted around Christmas for subscribers, and will include a macro outlook as well as individual names and predictions.)

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FED MEETING:

Heading into yesterday’s Fed meeting, the overwhelming consensus was for a “hawkish cut”. Every analyst and expert expected a 25bp rate cut, but to have it watered down with a hawkish Fed statement and jawboning from Powell to temper future expectations. Instead, it ended up being more dovish than everyone expected.

Well… almost everyone.

According to Bloomberg’s language and sentiment model, this was actually the most dovish Fed meeting in almost 5 years.

While the 25bp rate cut was dovish on it’s own, what really took the spotlight was the announcement that the Fed would begin buying Treasury bills, and buying a lot of them. They announced that they will be purchasing $40 Billion worth of T-bills every month for the next several months… and they are starting on Friday. Some smart people did think this action could be coming soon, but no one expected them to start right now, and certainly not in this amount.

So, what exactly does this mean?
It’s very simple.

The Fed drained reserves via QT too much, or at least too much for them to be comfortable sleeping at night. So to act without causing a massive panic, they are now buying Treasury bills (short-end) to avoid doing outright QE. Whether someone wants to call this QE or QE-lite or ‘Not-QE’ QE… it doesn’t mater. The bottom line is that the Federal Reserve is once again expanding their balance sheet and injecting liquidity. They are now printing reserves to finance the government’s deficits via bill purchases.

TLDR: They’re printing money.

WHERE MARKETS STAND + SANTA RALLY:

S&P 500 is just below 6,900 and up +17% YTD:

NASDAQ is just below 24,000 and up +23% YTD:

GOLD is just above $4,200 and up +60% YTD:

BITCOIN is hovering around $90,000 and down -5% YTD:

Overall it’s been another great year for the indices, even after the -19% drawdown and tariff tantrum in April. Being fully invested and buying the dip was rewarded, bigly. Big tech and the popular AI names have crushed it, while hard assets like Gold and commodities had incredible performance as the debasement trade. Of course, our wonderful Emerging Markets (LatAm) had a monster year, with Brazil up +45% YTD, blowing the S&P 500 out of the water.

Now, with only a couple of weeks left in 2025 and Powell showing the Fed’s dovish hand, he may have cleared us for a Santa Rally. Over the last century, the back-half of December is actually one of the best periods of the entire year.

SPX December returns from 1950-2024:

Citadel’s equity guru Scott Rubner also expanded on this in his most recent note: “The second half of December has one of the best hit rates of any 2-week period of the year. SPX has traded higher 75% of the time, with an average return of +1.3% (average positive return = +2.1%)”

It’s important to note that seasonality and historic performance is not automatic. Markets can obviously move in unpredictable ways and we don’t know what the future holds. However, in my experience certain periods of the year tend to be more reliable than others when it comes to trends. The back half of December is indeed one of those periods due to the extremely low volume around the holidays.

SUMMARY:

The Fed has cut another 25bp and will now be expanding their balance sheet again via Not-QE QE. In addition to this undeniably dovish scenario, we have very strong seasonality in the back half of December providing us some tailwinds. To keep it short, after another massive year in markets I believe Powell may have set us up for a Santa Rally, and I’m looking for a strong close into year-end.

PS - I will have a new post in the next few days on a stock position that will be one of my largest headed into 2026. I will also have my full 2026 Market Outlook post up around Christmas, which will include a macro outlook as well as individual names and predictions. Both posts will be for subscribers only, so subscribe below.

As always, this is not financial advice. I am sharing my personal views. It is meant to stimulate ideas and is not to be considered investment advice. Please make your own decisions.