"AI + Robots will reorder the entire economy."
- Elon Musk

As far as most people are concerned, AI is something on their screens. It’s an incredible tool stuck inside of your laptop or phone. However, it’s very clear that the next technology frontier will be combining AI with the advancements in robotics, bringing AI off of our computers and into the physical world. Over the last several days I’ve been building a position in a new stock. This is my largest starting position since Definium Therapeutics early last year, which then went up ~470% in 14 months. This company is positioned perfectly for the rapidly accelerating Physical AI/Robotics theme. I like the stock fundamentally, technically and politically and wanted to share it with the great readers of Geiger Capital. Lets dive in…

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In this review I will:

• Recap my 1H 2026 portfolio performance

• Each individual position’s YTD performance

• List the stocks I am keeping as we begin Q3

• Discuss where I’m looking for my next big trade

Let’s dive in…

YTD Performance (as of 6/30):

🔵 Geiger Capital Portfolio: +52%
🟠 S&P 500: +9%

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This post will go over the outcome I’m expecting, a review of my current Colombian stock positions, as well as my outlook for each of them post-election. Let’s dive in…

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This post will go over the current state of the race, the outcome I’m expecting, and how I’m positioned for it. This includes a stock that has recently become the largest position in my portfolio. Let’s dive in…

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In my 2026 Market Outlook, I listed the 5 stock positions I had entering the year. Since then, I’ve added 2 more core positions.

Current positions YTD:
🟢 +90% (+215% since posted)
🟢 +64% (+166% since posted)
🟢 +46% (+125% since posted)
🟢 +33% (+35% since posted)
🟢 +31% (+60% since posted)
🟢 +20% (*since posted 3/30)
🔴 -17% (*since posted 2/10)

If you had put an equal amount into each of the 5 positions on January 1st, and the additional 2 when posted, you’d be up +38% YTD. The S&P 500 is up 3% YTD.

Below I will list all 7 stocks, along with a brief updated thesis for each. I will also link to the full write-up I posted for every one of them individually. Let’s dive in…

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Here is the 1-Year performance of the region’s largest economies vs. the S&P 500:

🔴US (SPY): +14%
🟢Brazil (EWZ): +41%
🟢Colombia (COLO): +41%
🟢Mexico (EWW): +39%
🟢Chile (ECH): +30%

In addition to the region’s widespread outperformance, in November I wrote about a “Sleeping Giant in Latin America”, a specific stock that was perfectly set up to capture two major trends. It was positioned beautifully to take advantage of both rising oil prices into 2026 (a very contrarian view at the time) as well as a right-wing victory in Colombia’s upcoming election. That company was EcoPetrol ($EC), Colombia’s national energy giant.

Well… since my post 4 months ago, $EC is now up +56%.

I have now found a new stock that is sitting in a similar situation and should take full advantage of the Golden Age sweeping across Latin America. It’s not another sleeping giant, but more of a Hidden Gem. This is a company with strong fundamentals, incredible market positioning, and also has a major catalyst coming up that could easily send it’s stock to new decade highs. Let’s dive in…

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In my 2026 Market Outlook posted back in December, I mentioned a small-cap mining company that subscribers should keep an eye on. It’s name is Doubleview Gold Corp ($DBLVF). Entering the year they were waiting for an updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) and Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for their flagship "Hat Project" deposit in British Columbia.

Early research showed that this large-scale deposit was a major source of Copper, Cobalt, Gold, Silver, and even Scandium. Copper and Cobalt are in high demand lately due to AI data centers, wiring, EVs and batteries. Gold and Silver are in high demand due to both geopolitical and monetary uncertainty. Scandium is a rare earth metal used in planes and military tech that was recently included on China’s export list. Most importantly, the company owns 100% of the Hat Project and it’s located in a mining-friendly part of Canada known as the "Golden Triangle".

From my post in December:

Well… that was correct and the stock is now up +140% YTD.

In late February Doubleview released their updated MRE and as predicted it was a very positive update. The measurements at their flagship deposit had grown substantially in size and confidence level, while also maintaining reasonable grades. For a junior miner/developer this was a key moment that helped de-risk the Hat Project meaningfully and immediately positioned it as a leading multi-commodity asset in a great location.

Then, just a week after the MRE, Doubleview announced the new Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for the Hat Project on March 2nd. Even though the stock has pulled back a bit since, it was fantastic.

The assessment found that at "consensus analyst" metal prices, the after-tax Net Present Value (NPV) of the deposit is C$5-7 Billion. This is using extremely conservative price estimates. At current spot metal prices (as of late February in the assessment) the NPV would be C$11-14.5 Billion, more than double. Even the most conservative estimate is absolutely massive for a junior miner that is currently trading at a ~$400M market cap.

Looking at the mineral production estimates, the assessment said the Hat Project could be expected to produce an average of:

• Copper ~75,000+ tons/yr

• Gold ~250,000+ ounces/yr

• Silver ~376,000+ ounces/yr

• Cobalt ~2,700+ tons/yr

These are the annual production estimates of the project over the first 10 years.

It’s worth noting that the projected Cobalt production of ~2,700 tons per year would be equivalent to ~65% of North America’s entire Cobalt production in 2024. This mine would immediately become a primary North American source for both Cobalt and Copper.

This study is incredibly bullish, and again, very conservative. It uses safe assumptions, much lower prices than spot and also includes buffers for unexpected costs. It’s baseline almost entirely leaves out the bonus upside of Scandium, which could be 120+ tons per year. That is pure upside that could result in billions of extra value. Global demand for Scandium is estimated to 5-10X over the next decade due to growing commercial and military applications. The problem has been securing reliable supply due to most of it coming from China and Russia. The Hat Project could now be a major North American source, and it is barely being reflected in this NPV.

Here is what the CEO of Doubleview Gold said following these PEA results:

After this PEA the company is immediately moving into a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS), providing a clear roadmap for early works and permitting activities later this year and into 2027. Doubleview is trading well below it’s peers and the Hat Project appears extremely undervalued even at the "consensus" estimates.

The market has not realized what this PEA has shown or what the Hat Project may become for North America, as both Canada and the US race to secure domestic mineral supply chains. In addition, I believe there is now a very high chance that a larger miner comes in and makes a buyout offer. The PEA de-risked the project while also leaving a lot of potential upside. This could be one of the largest, most valuable developing mines in the world that is not already owned by a major mining company or a nation state.

In early January, I told our subscriber chat that I had initiated a small position in $DBLVF and today I am still holding the entire position up ~140%. I believe this company is very undervalued following the Hat Project PEA and it should see significant upside even without a buyout. However, I think an acquisition is now extremely likely in the coming months/quarters and the stock has the potential to go up multiples from here.

*This is a small-cap company. Do your own research.

As always, this is not financial advice. I am sharing my personal views. It is meant to stimulate ideas and is not investment advice. Make your own decisions.

Core Positions YTD:
(as of 2/9/26)

1. 🟢 +63%

2. 🟢 +30%

3. 🟢 +22%

4. 🟢 +20%

5. 🟢 +25%

In the past few days I’ve entered into a new position that is #6. It’s an AI-related stock that I believe is flying under the radar and should see massive upside. I wanted to share it with the great readers of Geiger Capital. Let’s dive in…

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• First, this is not a major surprise to markets (or us). We’ve been talking about this happening for months. Not only was Maduro deeply unpopular in Venezuela but he had lost all support in the region, even from other socialist leaders. I’m not expecting a major market shock in any form.

• This is bearish oil, however not as bearish as many are yelling. Venezuela’s oil production is down ~75% from it’s peak and today it only produces ~1% of global supply. As Venezuela shifts post-Maduro, especially with US involvement, oil production and supply is surely going to increase. It’s specifically bearish for Canada’s oil industry, as Venezuela produces a similar crude as Alberta. As Venezuelan supply increases, Canada will lose a lot of economic activity and trade leverage. The only bullish news, it should take a few years for this to play out. There is no immediate spigot to turn on in Caracas. Oil infrastructure needs to be rebuilt and their oil production will actually be flat/down in 2026.
  
  (Venezuela’s oil production, thousands of barrels)

  

• What comes next for Venezuela? The main problem with regime change isn’t removing the dictator, it’s who/what takes his place. I don’t believe the Trump Administration and Marco Rubio would grab Maduro with no plan on who would assume power. Things are obviously moving quickly and the facts on the ground can change, but here is my leading theory:
  
  Trump announced that we would “run Venezuela” for a period of time until they hold new elections. The media freaked out and assumed that meant we would be sending in troops to take over the capital. In reality, that was Trump speak for “we will be approving the leadership and policy in Venezuela”. I believe their pre-selected leader has already been put into place. Maduro’s Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, was sworn in as the new President yesterday.
  
  It’s important to note that she was previously in charge of Venezuela’s oil industry. While she was part of Maduro’s government, American officials have long seen her as more willing to work with the US. After being sworn in she gave a speech where she attacked the Trump administration, which I believe was mostly PR. She needs to talk tough publicly to retain support of the party and the military. What she says publicly isn’t that important, her actions will tell the truth.
  
  If she doesn’t play ball and instead defies the Trump administration, expect her to meet the same fate as Maduro. She now knows how easily she could be “replaced” and is also well aware that we clearly have CIA agents inside of Venezuela. Millions of Venezuelan’s have fled the country in the last few years, and obviously the vast majority of the opposition is no longer present. Because of this, the Trump administration believes current opposition leader Maria Corina Machado won’t have the immediate support to take over. They prefer Delcy Rodriguez because of her loyalty from the party and the military. I believe this is the correct move to provide stability in Venezuela for the time being. If she ends up refusing to work with the US, Maria Corina Machado could be the Plan B.

  

• Venezuela is not Iraq. I’m seeing tons of people talking about previous Middle East regime changes and applying the results to today. While the situation in Venezuela could certainly be unstable, this is simply not the same. Venezuela is in the Western hemisphere and had true democracy for decades before recently. The demographics are also nothing like Iraq or Libya. This is a largely European and Indigenous nation. It’s also ~90% Christian. The lines are drawn by political views, not blood feuds and religious extremists.
  

• This move by America has kicked our “Golden Age of Latin America” into hyperdrive. The right-wing political, economic and social shifts were already taking place naturally, and now in addition we have the US openly reviving the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine (a strong prediction of mine after Trump was elected). Socialism in LatAm is fading fast and let me be clear… I don’t think the Trump administration is done. In my view, Cuba is a clear target for them to go after next. It also wouldn’t be shocking to see some leaders cut deals to live the rest of their days outside of the Western hemisphere to avoid the same fate as Maduro. Plus, Colombia has their election this May and as I’ve been saying, the odds of a right-wing, pro-capitalism, pro-US candidate being elected are still very underpriced. (Ties into our latest large investment linked here).

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(My full 2026 Market Outlook will be posted around Christmas for subscribers, and will include a macro outlook as well as individual names and predictions.)

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FED MEETING:

Heading into yesterday’s Fed meeting, the overwhelming consensus was for a “hawkish cut”. Every analyst and expert expected a 25bp rate cut, but to have it watered down with a hawkish Fed statement and jawboning from Powell to temper future expectations. Instead, it ended up being more dovish than everyone expected.

Well… almost everyone.

According to Bloomberg’s language and sentiment model, this was actually the most dovish Fed meeting in almost 5 years.

While the 25bp rate cut was dovish on it’s own, what really took the spotlight was the announcement that the Fed would begin buying Treasury bills, and buying a lot of them. They announced that they will be purchasing $40 Billion worth of T-bills every month for the next several months… and they are starting on Friday. Some smart people did think this action could be coming soon, but no one expected them to start right now, and certainly not in this amount.

So, what exactly does this mean?
It’s very simple.

The Fed drained reserves via QT too much, or at least too much for them to be comfortable sleeping at night. So to act without causing a massive panic, they are now buying Treasury bills (short-end) to avoid doing outright QE. Whether someone wants to call this QE or QE-lite or ‘Not-QE’ QE… it doesn’t mater. The bottom line is that the Federal Reserve is once again expanding their balance sheet and injecting liquidity. They are now printing reserves to finance the government’s deficits via bill purchases.

TLDR: They’re printing money.

WHERE MARKETS STAND + SANTA RALLY:

S&P 500 is just below 6,900 and up +17% YTD:

NASDAQ is just below 24,000 and up +23% YTD:

GOLD is just above $4,200 and up +60% YTD:

BITCOIN is hovering around $90,000 and down -5% YTD:

Overall it’s been another great year for the indices, even after the -19% drawdown and tariff tantrum in April. Being fully invested and buying the dip was rewarded, bigly. Big tech and the popular AI names have crushed it, while hard assets like Gold and commodities had incredible performance as the debasement trade. Of course, our wonderful Emerging Markets (LatAm) had a monster year, with Brazil up +45% YTD, blowing the S&P 500 out of the water.

Now, with only a couple of weeks left in 2025 and Powell showing the Fed’s dovish hand, he may have cleared us for a Santa Rally. Over the last century, the back-half of December is actually one of the best periods of the entire year.

SPX December returns from 1950-2024:

Citadel’s equity guru Scott Rubner also expanded on this in his most recent note: “The second half of December has one of the best hit rates of any 2-week period of the year. SPX has traded higher 75% of the time, with an average return of +1.3% (average positive return = +2.1%)”

It’s important to note that seasonality and historic performance is not automatic. Markets can obviously move in unpredictable ways and we don’t know what the future holds. However, in my experience certain periods of the year tend to be more reliable than others when it comes to trends. The back half of December is indeed one of those periods due to the extremely low volume around the holidays.

SUMMARY:

The Fed has cut another 25bp and will now be expanding their balance sheet again via Not-QE QE. In addition to this undeniably dovish scenario, we have very strong seasonality in the back half of December providing us some tailwinds. To keep it short, after another massive year in markets I believe Powell may have set us up for a Santa Rally, and I’m looking for a strong close into year-end.

PS - I will have a new post in the next few days on a stock position that will be one of my largest headed into 2026. I will also have my full 2026 Market Outlook post up around Christmas, which will include a macro outlook as well as individual names and predictions. Both posts will be for subscribers only, so subscribe below.

As always, this is not financial advice. I am sharing my personal views. It is meant to stimulate ideas and is not to be considered investment advice. Please make your own decisions.

Well… I have found a Sleeping Giant in Latin America. This is a company with incredible positioning that has been quietly setting up for years, and has a major catalyst in 2026 that could easily send it to new decade highs. Let’s dive in…

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First, let me say that I have owned Bitcoin for years and still like it here. As I mentioned, I’m not a full-fledged crypto guy but in my view Bitcoin holds a similar investment thesis as gold. It could easily make up a few percent of any investor’s portfolio and provide diversification and protection against fiat currency debasement. That is now also much easier to accomplish with the incredibly popular Bitcoin ETF’s that launched in 2024. I think allocating to Bitcoin will only become more popular and common as younger investors who were always familiar with Bitcoin and the internet begin to replace the older, more skeptical investors who still remain in the market.

For those who may not know, crypto guys often refer to the month of October as “Uptober”. This is because of Bitcoin’s incredible seasonality and performance around the end of the year. Q4, and specifically October, is historically a very strong period for Bitcoin. Looking at the last decade plus, October is by far Bitcoin’s best and most consistent month. It has been positive in 10 of the last 12 Octobers, with an average gain of +20.22%. .

2024 was of course a Bitcoin halving/US election year. Bitcoin’s October performance during the previous three post-halving/post-election years was even better:

2021: +39.93%
2017: +47.81%
2013: +60.79%

I think it’s likely we see another big Uptober. If we pull up the Bitcoin chart it looks short-term bullish from a technical analysis perspective, with a massive rising wedge jumping off the screen. While this 2025 rising wedge could be bearish into 2026, it looks like Bitcoin should soon bounce back up towards ~130,000 and new highs in Q4.

Interestingly, when you look at Bitcoin in Gold terms (which continues to explode to new all-time highs day after day), it also looks like it is due for a rally in Q4. With Gold’s incredible performance recently, it appears it may be Bitcoin’s turn to play catch-up.

Of course, I need to briefly mention Bitcoin’s politcal angle. As we know, the Trump administration has now fully committed to Run the Economy Hot for the immediate future and we have entered an era of Fiscal Dominance. Hard assets will continue to thrive in the coming years as the dollar and global fiat currencies are printed and debased. Inflation is still running above the Fed’s target and yet we are now moving into a rate cutting cycle along with the rest of the world. As more and more people become aware of the persistent inflation and currency debasement, the significance of holding hard assets like houses, stocks, gold and Bitcoin will only grow.

This leads into why I remain bullish on Bitcoin’s longer-term outlook as well, even if it experiences a pullback or bear market in 2026. I think regardless of the macro environment outcome that we get this economic cycle, Bitcoin will continue to climb long-term. If the administration continues to run the economy hot, we will almost certainly experience an above-trend inflationary environment for the next several years. On top of the inflation, we also have growing concerns about the Fed becoming too political as they cut rates. Plus, global trust in US Treasuries as a neutral reserve asset has been shaken and central banks are now stacking gold. In this environment stocks, commodities, real assets and Bitcoin will all benefit greatly.

On the other hand, if growth slows and we get a recessionary environment with unemployment climbing dramatically, the Fed will actually have to cut rates even faster. While that may at first lead to a period of declining prices or even a bear market, it will quickly be followed by new stimulus measures as the Fed and Treasury are forced to ensure a strong recovery. This would officially bring about QE5 which will certainly be much bigger than QE4, as all QE rounds must be larger than the previous ones to be effective. The end result would be massive government spending, loosening financial conditions, ballooning deficits, along with sky-rocketing markets and asset prices. Bitcoin will take full advantage of QE5 just as it did with QE4, when it rose from ~$5,000 in March 2020 to ~$60,000 just one year later. A reminder that as of today we haven’t even stopped QT yet.

Either way this economic cycle plays out, I think Bitcoin is set up nicely in both the short-term (Uptober/Q4) and long-term (years ahead). I am bullish on Bitcoin seasonally, technically, politically and fundamentally. Happy Uptober.

As always, this is not financial advice. I am sharing my personal views. It is meant to stimulate ideas and is not to be considered investment advice. Please make your own decisions.

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Some breaking headlines from this morning…

*GERMANY 30-YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.377%, HIGHEST SINCE 2011

*FRENCH 30-YEAR YIELD RISES ABOVE 4.5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2011

France faces a potential collapse of it’s government as soon as September 8th when a no-confidence vote may remove the current leadership and it’s plan to cut spending. Yields on French 30-yr bonds are now at the highest since the euro-debt crisis.

*UK 30-YEAR YIELD CLIMBS TO 5.66%, HIGHEST SINCE 1998

The UK is trapped in a horrific doom loop of rising borrowing costs and growing deficits. Yields on 30-yr gilts just hit their highest level in over 27 years. It’s possible we are about to see a “Starmer Moment”, possibly even worse than the catastrophe Liz Truss faced a few years back.

Why This Is Happening:

What makes these yield moves incredibly alarming is the fact that we are actually in the midst of a global rate cutting cycle. Normally, when central banks pause or cut rates, yields fall. However recently the opposite has happened. Central banks are cutting rates, with even the US Fed about to join them in 2 weeks, and yet yields are surging to multi-year and multi-decade highs. Simply put, we are getting HIGHER interest rates despite the central banks cutting rates. They have lost control. This is happening for a few reasons.

1. Soaring Deficits + Debt

2. Elevated/Rising Inflation

3. Central Bank Credibility Crisis

Looking at reason #1, much of the developed world is sitting in the same spot. These governments have ballooning annual deficits with an already out of control debt load. Because of the higher deficits and higher yields, these governments now face astronomical interest expenses on their debt.

Higher deficits = Higher yields.
Higher yields = Higher interest payments.
Higher interest payments = Higher deficits.

Repeat from step 1. Welcome to the “doom loop”.

For example, the interest expense on the US national debt has now exceeded both Medicare and the entire Defense budget. It will soon catch up and pass Social Security to become the single largest outlay in the entire United States budget. We will need to run higher deficits for the foreseeable future to pay this interest expense without defaulting. By running higher deficits, we will owe even more interest, which will increase our deficits further, racking up more interest to be paid, and so on…

Looking at reason #2, inflation hasn’t been “defeated” no matter how many times Trump says it. CPI is still sitting at just under 3% YoY, almost 50% above the official target. Plus, Core PCE (the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator) has now risen for 4 months in a row and looks like it may have actually bottomed. Despite this, the Federal Reserve is about to join the global rate cutting cycle. This suggests a possible reacceleration of inflation, and yields are very clearly picking up on it.

This brings us directly into reason #3, which is a lack of credibility for Central Banks. Inflation is at best sticky or even on the rise, and yet they are cutting rates. Even if it doesn’t reaccelerate, inflation is certainly still above their 2% stated target. Global investors are realizing that the developed countries are going to “run it hot”, cutting rates in a desperate attempt to stimulate growth and inflate away their debt, rather than cutting spending. This leads investors to demand a higher yield to hold their underwater bonds.

On the other side of the credibility crisis, we have outright political influence. Trump is blatantly trying to reshape the Federal Reserve board and you will see other governments attempt to do the same. When government’s get into a tough enough fiscal position, their central banks will be forced to assist them instead of prioritizing monetary policy. This is called Fiscal Dominance, and we are now there.

Conclusion:

The honest answer is that the US, European and many of the developed governments are simply too big. No politician wants to cut spending in any meaningful way, even though they do not have the tax revenue or growth to support it. They are being fueled and maintained by deficit spending, which is now unsustainable at higher global rates. This is becoming increasingly obvious and troublesome as the central banks are unable to bring down rates due to inflation. Their traditional brakes on the train no longer work in this environment. They still have some short-term tools available that they will deploy, but they are essentially like putting a band-aid on a shotgun wound. This is going to spiral until the bond market eventually forces the government to cut spending, but we can spiral for much longer than you think.

If you thought Gold and Bitcoin were doing well with the US running insane fiscal deficits, wait until the entire world goes fiscal at once and inflation picks back up.

*SPOT GOLD SURGES TO RECORD HIGH ABOVE $3,500

P.S. - There is a very good chance that Trump’s entire tariff regime is ruled illegal by the Supreme Court in the coming months. If so, while it may help consumers and the growth side a bit, it would also remove hundreds of billions in annual tax revenue that was being factored into the government’s budget. Lawsuits will be filed, refunds will be issued and the loss of future customs revenue will make the US deficit even larger than before the tariffs started. Yields are just beginning to price that part in as Trump’s OBBB will be even worse fiscally than initially projected.